Escaping the Imperial Grip Of Russia: Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia, and Georgia

Abstract

Russia`s war with Georgia in 2008 and the ongoing conflict with Ukraine since 2013 have revealed Russia’s geopolitical ambitions in the former Soviet space. This forces former Soviet republics in the South Caucasus and Central and Eastern Europe to choose between non-alignment and closer integration with either the EU or Russia. This study focuses on the question of political and economic risk for Belarus, Armenia, Ukraine and Georgia, in case of their attempt to escape the influence of Russia. Based on the assumption that a common pattern exists in Russia’s behaviour during the conflicts in Georgia and Ukraine, ethnic and economic pre-conditions for a successful “hybrid warfare†are analysed, and the economic consequences of a potential change of course towards the EU of these countries are assessed.